Three possible trends in the future development of China's textile industry

2022-04-14 17:10

According to the domestic development and import and export situation of China's textile industry in 2016, there may be three major trends in the future development of China's textile industry. For this, domestic textile industry enterprises need to recognize China's current and future domestic situation and international situation. In the author's opinion, the situation may not be optimistic, let's look at the analysis. The resource supply of cotton (13900, 5.00, 0.04%) has a trend of heavy "domestic cotton" and light "foreign cotton" from the perspective of the current situation of the resource supply of cotton in 2016, the state vigorously promotes the entry of reserved cotton and real-estate cotton into the market, while the import volume of foreign cotton such as American cotton, Indian cotton and Australian cotton is limited. On the one hand, due to the limited quality of cotton varieties that can be provided to meet the requirements of domestic textile enterprises, Chinese enterprises mainly import C/A,EMOT,SJV and other varieties of high quality and high grade cotton. In addition, several major alliances led by the United States impose trade restrictions on China. The United States provides priority to the contracting countries in importing American cotton. The contracting countries are Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and other countries. (Using the remaining American cotton, even the editor doesn't think it is necessary) Indian cotton is one of the main import resources in China, but because of Pakistan's crazy demand for Indian cotton, the price of Indian cotton soars, which is not cost-effective for Chinese textile enterprises.

Judging from the market situation of cotton in various countries in 2016, cotton resources are still relatively tight. Cotton produced by various countries is mostly used for self-sale, and the export will be weaker. Fortunately, from the perspective of spinning and cotton distribution, high quality Xinjiang cotton + real estate cotton + national cotton storage can completely meet the needs of yarn mills. In addition, the growing area of long-staple cotton is relatively large, and the dependence of domestic textile factories on Australian cotton and American cotton is further reduced. If foreign trade barriers to China still exist or expand, China is likely to produce and sell cotton by itself. At present, industry experts have realized the problem of cotton production, and the research and development and production of fine cotton varieties have been put on the agenda. The government will provide strong support for the cotton demand of domestic textile enterprises.

Cotton textile exports may be more severely blocked in 2016/2017, China's textile and garment enterprises suffered from "encirclement and interception" and pressure from Europe, America, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and other countries. According to customs statistics, the year-on-year growth of China's cotton exports in July was only 2.16%, with a 0.17% month-on-month growth. In addition to uncertain factors such as exchange rate fluctuation, Fed interest rate increase, economic deflation and so on. According to the international political situation, the relationship between China and developed countries such as the United States is not stable enough. The United States tries to draw other countries to set up various obstacles to China's economic development. In the first half of this year, 12 countries including the United States, Japan, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam formally signed the TPP agreement in the New Zealand city Auckland.These 12 countries together account for 40% of the global economy, surpassing the European Union, seriously affecting the development of foreign trade in China's textile industry. Textile industry may carry out structural adjustment according to customs statistics, from September, 2015 to July, 2016, our country imported 890,000 tons of foreign cotton cumulatively, with a year-on-year decrease of 700,000 tons and a decrease of 44%; From January, 2016 to July, 2016, we imported 525,000 tons of foreign cotton cumulatively, with a year-on-year decrease of 527,000 tons and a decrease of 51%. The large "plunge" of China's import volume surprised many foreign merchants and large and medium-sized import enterprises. Many small trading companies and middlemen such as Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou have switched to import yarn, chemical fiber or close stores, which poses a severe test to enterprises who wish or are engaged in textile industry. The instability of enterprises increases the risk of cooperation and is not conducive to the healthy and healthy development of textile industry. The international relations between China and other countries in the world have seriously affected the nerves of domestic textile industry. If China can gain greater discourse power in international trade, it will be of great benefit to the stability and development of domestic textile industry. Whether the G20 summit in Hangzhou can make progress on trade issues is a matter of great concern.

To sum up, the future development of China's textile industry is facing multiple difficulties. The situation is not optimistic, but there is no need to be too pessimistic. I believe that the ability of the country and the government will help the textile industry develop and grow, and let the enterprises in the textile industry operate well. Enterprises should always pay attention to the national policies and market conditions and make timely adjustments.

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